Artha Vijnana: Journal of The Gokhale Institute of Politics and Economics

K. B. Pathak

Abstract

The composition of a cohort of exposed married women changes rapidly by the virtue of the tendency of pregnancy to select the most fecund and leave behind an increasingly subfecund residual group. This phenomenon, known as selection of fecundability, was first studied by Tietze (1959) through a crude model and later on by several authors like Potter and Parker (1964), Sheps (1964) and Potter et al (1970).

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K. B. Pathak

Abstract

Several attempts have been made recently to estimate the births averted through different family planning methods in India by authors like Agarwala (1968), Agarwala and Venkatacharya (1968), Stolnitz (1968), Venkatacharya (1971) and others. The number of births averted can be defined as the difference between the number of births that would have been expected from the group of couples had they not practiced any of the existing methods of family planning and the number of births which actually occurred to the same group of couples after the contraceptive status they acquired under the programme.

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K. B. Pathak

Abstract

The extreme pattern of young age marriages for females in India is of great interest not only as a social phenomenon but because of its implications of future births and hence growth of population in India in relation to its economic development. In the absence of a compulsory marriage registration system in India, census and fragmentary surveys are the only sources to provide data on marriages. Agarwala (1962) provided a detailed picture of changing trends in age at marriage in India based on the proportion of 'single' females in different age groups as obtained from different censuses. Kumar (1967) recently has calculated the nuptiality rate for 'single' females in different age groups by using the distribution of the population by marital status obtained from the 1951 and 1961 censuses. However, for estimating the marriage probabilities from only one census for the 'single' females at different ages we need to know only their subsequent history. Knowledge on the conditions of those who are currently married or widowed, may not improve the estimates of marriage probabilities obtained from the proportion of singles in different age groups.

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K. B. Pathak

Abstract

The most important aspect of the study in human fertility is to examine the pattern of variation in the number of births per couple and to suggest a probability distribution which takes into account the variability in fecundability due to age of couples, number of children born, their health and sex conditions.

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K. B. Pathak , P. K. Murty

Abstract

Most of the developing countries in Asia have experienced declines in their fertility levels over the last two decades. While some small countries (Islands) of Asia viz., Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong, and also Sri Lanka started showing symptoms of fertility decline in the early fifties, most of the bigger countries in Asia which were comparatively less developed-experienced declines in their fertility only after the introduction of their national family planning programmes. However, the declines in birth rates of these countries remained uneven depending on the levels of their socio-economic development at the time of the implementation of the programme and subsequently.

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